While polls are hardly the only indicator of how a campaign is progressing, nor are they a infallible indicator of how voters will cast their ballots, the signs do not look good for the opposition front candidacy of Xochitl Galvéz. They have barely changed at all since the beginning of the campaign (or even of the “pre-campaign” when the two candidates for the two main coalitions were known). The latest from Polls.mx shows Sheinbaum at 53% and Galvéz at an anemic 27%… about where they have always been.
Is the candidate, or the coalition between the two once ruling parties, to blame for their disaster. Viri Ramos,in the editorially pro-opposition Milenio, blames the latter.
(my translation)
Polls leading up to the first presidential debate didn't register any changes in electoral preferences.Even with the hullabaloo of the “Xóchitl phenomenon”, the changes in voter preference between the opposition and Morena has only been 2 points. In statistical terms, nothing. 2024 will be remembered as the most boring election in history.
The polls are electrocardiogram of the campaign: Galvéz is a dead woman walking, and the only question is “why'”.
There are those who attribute this to López Obrador's unmatched charisma. It is impossible to beat the party of the most popular president in recent history, they say.
I differ. No doubt Obrador is charismatic, but at this point in his six-year term, Zedillo's popularity was as high as Obrador's, which did not lead to a PRI victory for his sucessor in 2000. In fact, at that point, point Zedillo's successor had a 3-point advantage over his opponent, Vicente Fox, even though there were already those who expected Fox and PAN to win the election. Which Fox did win.. but a fairly substantial margin (43.4% to PRI's 36.9% and the left-wing alliance's 17%.
There are those who attribute the opposition's flat-lining to Xóchitl and write her off, say she has been poorly advised to begin with, and been turned into a candidate other than who she is.
Xóchitl is the best candidate that the PRI-PAN could have had. A charismatic woman with an exceptional personal story. A person who comes from below, but who has still fully bought into the business-liberal ideology of echeleganismo* popular with the elites. There is no better cheerleader than a convert and Xóchitl is one.
However, It seems to me the reason she has flat-lined comes from a much deeper fault: the opposition front believes that the electorate is stupid.
The opposition front thought they could sell us Xóchitl as a citizen candidate as if she was not beholden to their parties, and no one would notice. They would hide the PRI, the PAN, their leaders and governors, and they would tell us to vote for a woman “without a party.” Perhaps they thought no one would remember that Xóchitl has been a candidate for governor, delegate and senator on PAN tickets. Nobody. We would only remember the story of her hard childhood.
The front also thought that her candidate could tell everyone what they wanted to hear and no one would notice. Thus, Xóchitl has been heard saying all kinds of contradictory arguments. She speaks on behalf of the poor or the business communtiy depending on her audience. Good or bad of the PRI as appropriate. In a world where everything is on video, the strategy is a disaster. Xóchitl contradicts himself all the time.
The opposition front thought that their militants were stupid and would not realize that they are being used as pawns. PAN militants were expected to unquestionaly back candidates from their historical enemy, PRI, and vice versa. Candidacies for once competitive seats were divided between two parties now in coalition. The opposition front thought that its loyalists would not do or say anything. Of course, many went to Morena.
The opposition front also thought they could sell the idea of the “useful vote,” ... anyone but Morena. But, when we all realized that that someone was probably Samuel García (the popular MC – the thrid force – govenor of Nuevo Leon) , they changed their strategy, worked to keep Garcia from running, and though no one would notice their hypocrisy.
Thus, under the premise that we were all stupid, the opposition front went out to campaign. The EKG of a dead woman campaigning shows only that they, not the voters, are the fools.
*“Echeleganismo” apparently coined, or at least used in the popular press, by the actor Tenoch Huerta (who like Xochiltl Galvéz, despite a indigenous and poverty-stricken background, has found success among the elites in his profession). It's said of a person who “pulled themselves up by the bootraps”then conforms and celebrate the mores and values of the elites.
"Echeleganismo." I'm not sure there's an equivalent word in English, and that's really too bad. America is afflicted with this and we need a word for it.
I remember in my late twenties, meeting a college friend after a few years, at a party of old friends. Her career was taking off, and her husband's even more so. My career was taking longer to get going.
Conversation turned to US social issues. My former friend had been a social justice activist. Newly affluent, she laughed at her former self as having been idealistic due to youthful naivete.
I decided this was a friendship worth discarding, so I said, "Opinions change. Values don't. Your new money shows us you never had any values, did you."
So then it was time to get my coat and leave, and I made a point to apologize to our host.
I've never seen her again since, these 30 years, and that's fine by me. I hear she's on husband 4 at least, and rich as Croesus and twice as miserable.
I'm more affluent than I ever thought possible, due to (not despite) my increasing anarchism. I didn't make the rules of America's rotting society, but I do live here, and I haven't taken a vow of poverty. I've prospered by seeing opportunities in the rot. I don't take that as virtue.
Echeleganismo can kiss my ass while I take their money.