If anyone has a clue on why or how El Mayo and Joaquin Guzman López ended up landing on an airstrip outside El Paso, into the waitin(?) arms of the DEA and FBI.. of — according to some, IF — there is still room to spin out almost any narrative one wants.
Mexico and the World posits two possibilities: that El Mayo has lost in a power struggle against the “Chapoitos”, the two still active sons of Joaquin Guzman Loera, aka “Chapo”, the former favorite boogie-man of US “anti-drug warriors, now resident of the “Supermax” federal prison in Colorado. The second being more complicated.
Mexico and the World’s alternative scenario is that:
… fentanyl smuggling [. . .] has seriously affected the operations of the Sinaloa cartel, which is also in a fight to the death against the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel to control both the northern border of Mexico and the border between Chiapas and Guatemala.
In this sense, the cartel would have been willing to sacrifice two of its leaders (they could be the weakest within the cartel leadership), to reduce the pressure from the United States authorities and even suspend fentanyl exports to the United States, waiting for what happens in the presidential elections in that country; as well as the change of federal administration in Mexico starting next October 1st.
Mexico and the World admits the latter is a weaker argument, although… as anyone reading that site would expect, the author goes on to suggest that the “4th Transformation” govenment (both outgoing and incoming administrations) are in cahoots with organized crime.
At the same time, in resent podcasts, both Julio Astrillo and Jesus Escobar Tovar, as well as others, suggest the opposite… that El Mayo and or Guzman López were “set up” with the intention of having them spill the beans on opposition figures and former political leaders who were in league with the Sinaloa “cartel”1.
Yet another scenario has El Mayo having provided intelligence to) the DEA for several years, and his “surrender” being some sort of “retirement plan” (he’s in his late 70s, and said to have diabetes) with a quid pro quo of his son being quietly released from US custody. Or, that Guzman López — always the most “discreet” of the sons of Chapo — is giving up El Mayo in return for better treatment of his own family members in US custody and that whatever charges are brought against him will lead to relatively lenient sentences OR… both are going into some sort of Witness Protection Plan in addition to considerations for their various incarcerated family members2.
A variation on the DEA working with El Mayo story has the DEA still licking its wounds after being unceremoniously told it could no longer do as it wished in Mexico and is trying to “set up” AMLO (and, by extension, the entire 4th Transformation)… “evidenced” by the all-too obvious string of “exposes” during the recent election here of “investigations” into alleged schemes by the Sinaloans to bribe AMLO, or to contribute to his campaign in return for unnamed “favors”.
Francisco Cruz, speaking with Jesus Escobido Tovar — while holding that the capture of the pair will expose collusion between previous governments (and the PRI and PAN parties in general) with narco-traffickers — also mentions another possible player… public enemy #1… the Central Intelligence Agency. While, sure, the CIA, and the US foreign policy establishment in general, would prefer a Mexico that kowtows to US policies without question, or, at least does not interfere with US business and financial interests, there may be a nugget of truth in what Cruz is saying… that the Mexican administration (which denies even having a hand in the capture of the pair) wants drug lords arrested in the United States, given their mistrust of the present state of the judiciary here, as well as discrediting opposition figures. But, the story would seem to be a little too complex, and the CIA a little too easy a target, to take that scenario all that seriously.
Finally, the timing of the event … as a new administration takes over in Mexico and the US faces a close election between a knee-jerk anti-Mexican who has openly suggested military actions against the country, and an unanticipated replacement candidate for the sitting party (which hasn’t been all that Mexico-friendly either), either a “plot” to lure those two into the United States to spill the beans on previous pro-US administrations, or to just provide a “trophy” for the more malleable Biden, now Harris, camp does make some sense.
Not that any of it makes sense. Maybe, if it wasn’t Putin (about the only villain so far not implicated or named) it was just one of those “shit happens” events.
I still hold a slight resentment towards the “mainstream” correspondents who covered the Calderón era “drug war” here (when I was living in Sinaloa) for them poo-pooing me when I’d mention that it was rather obvious that the “war” was only going after the Sinaloan’s rivals, and that the rival leaders conveniently ended up dead rather than arrested… no man, no problem.
Reports that Joaquin’s step-brother Ovidio (of the infamous shootout and withdrawal of military forces during a capture attempt at the start of AMLO’s presidency) has been released from US custody were apparently premature.
Wow - a lot to process here.